Federal Reserve

The US Isn't Fighting A Temporary Inflation Spike — It's Entering A 2-Year Mini-Cycle

Stjepan Kalinic — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 20:30:34 +0000

For much of the past year, investors have operated under a simple assumption. Inflation is gradually cooling, the Federal Reserve will eventually pivot to rate cuts, and the economy will settle back into a familiar low-interest-rate environment.

Increasingly, the data is pointing in the opposite direction. A growing body of evidence suggests the U.S. is not dealing with a temporary inflation spike, but rather entering a reflationary mini-cycle.

In a Tuesday note, Bank of America (BofA) significantly raised its probability of such a scenario, arguing that the cycle could persist through 2027 and potentially into 2028. The bank sees the middle stages of a multi-year expansionary cycle fueled by tariffs, manufacturing price pressures, and resilient domestic demand.

If that view proves correct, investors may need to rethink both their macro outlook and sector positioning.

The Death Of The Disinflation Narrative

The most immediate challenge to the disinflation thesis comes from the inflation data itself.

The Cleveland Fed’s May CPI Nowcast estimates headline inflation between 3.74% and 3.89%, while its Core PCE Nowcast stands at 3.32%.

Those data points are well above the Federal Reserve’s ...

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Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq Futures Fall As House Challenges Trump's Military Authority— Broadcom, CrowdStrike In Focus (UPDATED)

Rishabh Mishra — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 12:50:41 +0000

(Editor’s note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs and the headline were updated in the story.)

U.S. stock futures declined on Thursday after a lower close on Wednesday, as the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell.

Weekly initial jobless claims jumped by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ending May 30. Meanwhile, the government downwardly revised its reading on first-quarter nonfarm labor productivity to a marginal 0.3% annualized growth rate—down from the previously reported 0.8%—while unit labor costs rose at a 1.8% clip.

In a 215-208 vote, the Republican-controlled House passed a war powers resolution requiring President Donald Trump to obtain congressional authorization before continuing military action or deploying troops against Iran. Notably, four Republicans joined Democrats to pass the measure, marking a rare bipartisan challenge to the president’s military authority.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.49%, and the two-year bond was at 4.07%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 96.2% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged during June’s meeting.

Index	Performance (+/-)
Dow Jones	0.29%
S&P 500	-0.37%
Nasdaq 100	-0.85%
Russell 2000	0.16%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were lower in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was down 0.33% at $751.73, while the QQQ declined by 1.15% to $735.65.

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Stocks In Focus

CrowdStrike Holdings

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) was 9.98% in premarket on Thursday, despite beating estimates as it announced a 4-for-1 stock split.

Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that CRWD maintains a strong price trend in the short, long, and medium terms.

Broadcom

Broadcom Inc.

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'E-Shaped' Economy: Fed Beige Book Reveals High Earners Keep Spending While Middle-Class Americans Stretch Every Dollar

Rishabh Mishra — Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:06:50 +0000

The U.S. economy is increasingly dividing into two distinct realities, with affluent Americans fueling a luxury boom while lower- and middle-income households face mounting financial pressure.

Fractured Landscape: ‘E’ Shaped Economy

The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report highlights a stark bifurcation across income brackets amid persistent affordability pressures. While higher-income households have remained resilient and relatively insensitive to price increases, the rest of the country is pulling back.

According to the report, middle-income households were widely described as “squeezing more life out of every dollar before deciding to spend it,” while low-income consumers showed signs of much greater financial strain.

Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, characterized the current dynamic as a classic “E-shaped” economy, noting that the top 20% are doing fine while the middle class is stretching every dollar and the bottom is in serious trouble.

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Ed Yardeni's Fed Bombshell: Rate Hike Coming In July

Piero Cingari — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 15:38:56 +0000

For most of 2026, the debate on Wall Street has centered on when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates again.

Ed Yardeni just flipped that conversation on its head.

The veteran strategist and president of Yardeni Research is now openly predicting that the Federal Reserve could raise rates as soon as its July 29 meeting, a scenario that remains almost unthinkable in financial markets.

The call makes Yardeni one of the first major Wall Street economists to explicitly forecast a July rate hike rather than merely warning about upside inflation risks.

“Unlike the consensus, which doesn’t expect a rate hike until late this year at the earliest, we see the FOMC raising the federal funds rate in July,” Yardeni said.

Wall Street’s Most Contrarian Fed Call? Yardeni Sees A July Rate Hike

Prediction markets show just how isolated Yardeni’s view remains.

According to market-implied probabilities tracked by betting platforms, the odds of a July rate hike are roughly 5%, meaning traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged.

A $10 wager on a July hike would return roughly $170 if the event occurs.

That gap between market pricing and Yardeni’s forecast highlights how far outside the consensus his call sits.

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Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Fall, Nasdaq Gains As Middle East Tensions Intensify— Palo Alto, Marvell In Focus (UPDATED)

Rishabh Mishra — Wed, 03 Jun 2026 13:00:49 +0000

(Editor’s note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs and the headline were updated in the story.)

U.S. stock futures were mixed on Wednesday, after a record close on Tuesday, as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 declined but the Nasdaq 100 rose.

The U.S. military retaliated against Iran by launching strikes on an Iranian ground control station on Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran's failed missile attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain.

Just a day before the missile attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly received a heated call from President Donald Trump over the situation in Lebanon. According to an Axios report, Trump called Netanyahu "crazy" and said he would "be in prison if it weren't for me." Trump allegedly added, "Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this."

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.48%, and the two-year bond was at 4.07%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 98.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged during June’s meeting.

Index Performance (+/-)

Dow Jones -0.26%

S&P 500 -0.07%

Nasdaq 100 0.01%

Russell 2000 -0.36%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were mixed in premarket on Wednesday. The SPY was down 0.20% at $746.78, while the QQQ advanced by 0.083% to $746.40.

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Michael Burry Spots A Dot-Com Parallel In AI Chip Stocks As SOXX's Record-Breaking Rally Accelerates: 'History Repeats'

Stocks In Focus

Palo Alto Networks

Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW) was 4.62% lower despite beating third-quarter estimates and raising its guidance.

Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that PANW maintains a strong price trend in the short, long, and medium terms, with a solid growth score.

Shopify

Shopify Inc.
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Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Fall As Trump Says He 'Couldn't Care Less' If Iran Talks Collapse—Marvell, Alphabet In Focus (UPDATED)

Rishabh Mishra — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 12:32:04 +0000

(Editor’s note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs, and the headline were updated in the story.)

U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday, after a record close on Monday, starting the month of June on a positive note.

President Donald Trump appeared unfazed by the possibility of negotiations collapsing with Iran. “I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less,” Trump told CNBC when asked about reports suggesting Iran may halt talks with Washington.

He also predicted that crude would soon be “dropping like a rock” and gasoline would plummet to $1.85 a gallon once the crisis resolves.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.43%, and the two-year bond was at 4.02%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 98.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged during June’s meeting.

Index Performance (+/-)

Dow Jones -0.28%

S&P 500 -0.09%

Nasdaq 100 -0.01%

Russell 2000 -0.01%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were lower in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was down 0.23% at $756.79, while the QQQ declined by 0.12% to $741.88.

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Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down Today?

Stocks In Focus

Hewlett-Packard Enterprise

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (NYSE:HPE) surged 26.60% in premarket on Tuesday after it reported higher-than-expected second-quarter results after market close. The company’s EPS came in at $0.79, ahead of the consensus of $0.53 on revenue of $10.68 billion, beating the estimate of $9.79 billion.

Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that HPE maintains a strong price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a poor growth rank.

Alphabet

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL)
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What You Think Should Happen Doesn't Always Happen In Real Life

Sam Ro — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 19:47:43 +0000

Market skeptics and commenters on social media will watch a single variable move in what they consider an unfavorable way, and then jump to the conclusion that the stock market is in trouble.

Maybe the market eventually moves as they predicted. Sometimes that happens.

But markets are complicated, and they'll often move in counterintuitive ways.

Consider the recent rally in long-term interest rates. That's gotta be bad news for the stock market, right? Not necessarily.

Stocks sometimes move higher despite rising interest rates. (Source: FRED)

In his note to clients on Wednesday, Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, challenged the idea that rising rates automatically mean lower stock market valuations. From his note: "You have probably heard this sequence of statements many times: Long-term interest rates are increasing. This means that the present value of future cash flows is declining. Therefore, equity valuations should drop as well."

Colas dismantled this oversimplification, flagging two big problems with the shoddy argument he just summarized.

"The first is that it doesn't work in real life," he wrote.

He pointed at 2015 to 2019, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury ...
Full story available on Benzinga.com

Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq Futures Rise As US Undertakes 'Self-Defense' Strikes Against Iran— HPE, NVDA, UBER In Focus (UPDATED)

Rishabh Mishra — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 12:52:20 +0000

Editor’s Note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs, and the headline were updated in the story.

U.S. stock futures rose on Monday, after a higher close on Friday, ending the month of May at a record high.

The U.S. has undertaken "self-defense" strikes in Iran on Sunday as President Donald Trump says Iran wants a deal and urges critics to stop second-guessing his negotiation strategy.

According to an update on X by the Central Command, the U.S. carried out strikes in Iran over the weekend, hitting Iranian radar and command and control sites. The strikes were in response to "aggressive Iranian actions," including the shooting down of a US MQ-1 drone operating over international waters.

Investors will keep an eye on the May jobs report this week, slated for a Friday release, and earnings from tech heavyweights like Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD), and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO).

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.46%, and the two-year bond was at 4.03%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 99.4% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged during June’s meeting.

Index Performance (+/-)

Dow Jones 0.15%

S&P 500 0.15%

Nasdaq 100 0.18%

Russell 2000 -0.10%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were higher in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.22% at $758.04, while the QQQ was higher by 0.21% to $739.86.

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Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down Today?

Stocks In Focus

Hewlett Packard Enterprise

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (NYSE:HPE) jumped 6.06% in premarket on Friday as it is set to report its second-quarter results after market close. Analysts expect the company to report a 28.7% year-on-year rise in revenue to $9.82 billion, with a 42.11% year-on-year increase in EPS to $0.54. It also announced a new HPE ProLiant Compute DL394 Gen12 with the latest NVDA Vera CPU at the Computex 2026 in Taipei.

Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that HPE maintains a strong price trend in the long, short, and medium terms, with a poor growth rank.

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Marjorie Taylor Greene Slams 'Fuzzy Math' That Doesn't Lower Food, Gas Prices, But Allows New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh To Lower Rates

Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:41:14 +0000

Marjorie Taylor Greene slammed the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, in a social media post on Sunday.

The Former Georgia Congresswoman said that placing greater emphasis on “trimmed mean” inflation would downplay the impact of rising food and energy prices on American households.

“Fuzzy math doesn't lower the cost of food and gas even if it allows the new Fed Chair to lower interest rates,” Greene said in a post on X.

Fed Chair’s Inflation View

Warsh, at his confirmation in April, urged policymakers to place greater emphasis on alternative inflation measures such as trimmed mean inflation, which excludes the largest monthly price increases and declines to better capture underlying price trends.

He suggested that conventional inflation measures can be overly influenced by short-term shocks, making trimmed mean inflation a more reliable guide for policymakers.

The Debate Over Inflation Metrics

Greene suggested that a greater reliance ...
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Jerome Powell Warns Fed's 'Priceless' Credibility Is At Risk If Officials Are Removed Over Policy Differences: 'Future Administrations Will...'

Namrata Sen — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 07:32:48 +0000

Jerome Powell, the former Chair of the Federal Reserve, has expressed concern over the potential risks associated with political interference in the central bank’s activities.

Powell, now a Fed governor, voiced these concerns while receiving a political courage award at an event in Boston. He didn’t single out any specific administration or air any particular grievances, but stressed the significance of preserving the central bank’s independence, reported the Wall Street Journal on Sunday.

“If any administration finds a way to remove Fed officials over policy differences, then future administrations will do so as well,” Powell warned. He underscored that the credibility of the Fed, built over decades, was a “priceless asset” that he and his colleagues had a duty to safeguard.

Powell also pointed out the legal protections in place to prevent the removal of Fed officials and emphasized that the executive branch has “no role in the selection or oversight of the 12 reserve bank presidents” who vote on interest rates.

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Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down Today?

Rishabh Mishra — Mon, 01 Jun 2026 06:09:34 +0000

The major stock indexes closed out May at fresh record highs, capping a triumphant month of gains fueled by relentless tech momentum and softer-than-expected inflation data.

Investors heading into June are greeted by a significantly calmer geopolitical backdrop, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished the week down roughly 9% amid ongoing, constructive peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. The June 1 Polymarket contract implied a 80% probability that the benchmark index would open higher on Monday, compared with a 20% chance of a downward open.

Why That Number Matters

The market’s attention is shifting from wartime volatility to corporate and macroeconomic fundamentals. On Monday, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a highly anticipated keynote address at Computex Taipei, injecting fresh optimism into the artificial intelligence (AI) and computing sectors ahead ...
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Fed's Schmid Warns Inflation Is 'Too Hot,' Energy Shock May Not Be Temporary

Namrata Sen — Fri, 29 May 2026 12:55:54 +0000

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jeffrey Schmid, has raised concerns that the ongoing energy shock may not be as short-lived as expected, considering the existing high inflation rates.

During a conference in Iceland on Friday, Schmid expressed, “My primary concern is inflation, which is too hot and has been above target for too long.” He further emphasized his skepticism about the recent price surge being “transitory” within an acceptable time frame, reported Reuters.

“Now is not the time to let down our guard, given how long inflation has been above the central bank's 2% target,” Schmid added.

The Kansas Fed President noted that despite the U.S.’s reduced susceptibility to energy shocks compared to the past, higher gasoline prices still affect consumer spending. He also highlighted that U.S. energy firms are leaning towards greater capital discipline and are reluctant to boost oil production due to price uncertainties.

At the time of writing, Brent crude oil was trading 1.64% lower at $84.40 per barrel, while the WTI crude futures were trading 1.53% lower at $87.54 per barrel.

Despite the concerns, Schmid ...
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Small-Cap Lead Might Be The Most Dangerous Trade Right Now

Stjepan Kalinic — Fri, 29 May 2026 10:17:55 +0000

The Russell 2000's sharp outperformance this year has been celebrated as proof that the market rally is finally broadening beyond mega-cap technology stocks.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) is up 17.38% year-to-date, compared to State Street's SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) at 10.46%.

Yet the narrative that investors are more confident about economic growth and rotating into cyclical areas is colliding with a dangerous macro setup.

Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates elevated for longer — or even raise them again before year-end. The CME FedWatch tool shows a near 40% chance of at least one rate hike by year's end.

That risk translates directly to small-cap stocks, as they remain among the most rate-sensitive segments of the equity market. If the new Chairman, Kevin Warsh, strikes a hawkish tone, the same trade currently being hailed as healthy market broadening could quickly reverse.

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow Futures Inch Up As US-Iran Deal Awaits Trump Approval — Dell, Agilent, Hewlett Packard Enterprise In Focus

Benzinga Neuro — Fri, 29 May 2026 09:39:15 +0000

U.S. stock futures edged up on Friday after closing higher on Thursday, with all the major indexes gaining as investors kept a close watch on the Iran war developments.

The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached an agreement to extend the ongoing ceasefire by 60 days, but it is currently awaiting final approval from President Donald Trump.

The agreement would allow traffic to flow uninterrupted through the Strait of Hormuz while the two sides negotiate the future of Iran's nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yields stood at 4.461%, and the two-year bond was at 4.035%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 98.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged during June's meeting.

Index Performance (+/-)

Dow Jones 0.16%

S&P 500 0.10%

Nasdaq 100 0.08%

Russell 2000 -0.15%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were up in premarket on Friday. The SPY was up 0.12% at $755.64, while the QQQ was up 0.08% to $736.22.

Stocks In Focus

Dell

Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL) surged nearly 40% in Friday's pre-market session after the company reported an 88% year-over-year surge in revenue to $43.84 billion, which is the company's fastest revenue growth in eight years.

Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings indicate that DELL maintains a strong price trend in the long, medium, and short terms, with a strong momentum rank.

Agilent

Agilent Technologies Inc.'s (NYSE:A) first-quarter results beat Wall Street estimates, with revenue coming in at $1.84 billion, higher than the estimated $1.80 billion. Agilent Technologies shares surged over 18% to $136.71 in the pre-market session.

Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings indicate that A maintains a weak price trend in the long term but strong trends in the ...
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S&P 500 Hits Record Highs, Snowflake Jumps 37% On AI Boom: Stock Market Today

Piero Cingari — Thu, 28 May 2026 16:58:11 +0000

U.S. stocks hit record highs Thursday after reports that Washington and Tehran agreed to a 60-day ceasefire extension and phased resumption of Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.5% to a record 7,557.85, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 32 points, or 0.1%, to 50,676.

The Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.4% to a record 30,089. Within Magnificent Seven stocks, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) jumped 2.9%, while Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) edged 0.3% higher – on track to snap four straight sessions of losses.

The small-cap Russell 2000 rallied 0.6% to 2,937, the strongest performance among major U.S. benchmarks.

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Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Hits 3.8%, Highest Since May 2023

April PCE Report Delivered Mixed Read For Fed

Headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year – the hottest since early 2023 – with the monthly print up 0.4%, but core PCE rose just 0.2% on the month and 3.3% year-over-year, broadly in line with estimates.

Real personal spending grew just 0.1%, personal income was essentially flat, and first-quarter GDP was revised lower by 0.4 percentage points to 1.6% on softer investment, painting a picture of a consumer that is no longer outrunning prices.

The mixed macro print did little to soften the Fed’s hawkish chorus. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said rate hikes remain on the table if price pressures fail to converge back to the 2% target, echoing similar warnings from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.

Thursday’s Performance In Major US Indices

Index Last % Change

S&P 500 7,557.85 +0.5%

Dow Jones 50,676.51 +0.1%

Nasdaq 100 30,089.53 +0.4%

Russell 2000 2,937.35 +0.6%

Updated ...
Full story available on Benzinga.com

Index	Last	% Change
S&P 500	7,557.85	+0.5%
Dow Jones	50,676.51	+0.1%
Nasdaq 100	30,089.53	+0.4%
Russell 2000	2,937.35	+0.6%