Top Polymarket Whale Nets $300,000 On Warsh—Here Are His Next 3 Bets

Kevin Warsh wasn’t the only person pleased with President Trump’s pick for Fed Chair.

Legendary prediction market trader Domer—operating under the handle @ImJustKen—cleared over $300,000 on the trade, based on publicly visible position data.

The “Alpha”: Fading the Consensus

This wasn’t a lucky guess or an insider ploy. Domer was publicly skeptical of the previous frontrunner, Kevin Hassett, even when prediction markets priced Hassett around an 80% chance of winning in early December.

While retail traders chased the hype, Domer took the contrarian side and won big. Domer’s lifetime PNL on Polymarket is almost $3 million, according to profile data.

With the Fed Chair market now resolved, a look at his existing positions shows a second theme he's been building: geopolitical stability in 2026.

Domer's Next 3 Bets

Domer's largest current positions see him fade the “WW3 premium” that's been supporting defense and crude risk hedges:

• No Iran Strike (Early 2026): Positioned for de-escalation rather than a near-term U.S./Israel military move.
• Ukraine Ceasefire (End of 2026): Positioned for a freeze, not an expansion.
• Iran leadership stability (Q1 2026): Betting Khamenei stays put through March.

If this stability theme is correct, it hits two of the market's most crowded “fear trades”:

• Defense: Names like Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT) can lose a tailwind when headline risk cools and urgency fades.
• Oil: Crude risk premiums can compress if traders stop pricing in disruption scenarios—a direct read-through for United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO).

The Bottom Line: Domer just got paid by fading the Fed Chair consensus—and his current book leans hard into “nothing ever happens” for geopolitics in 2026.

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