Prediction Markets

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down Today?

Eva Mathew — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 09:01:42 +0000

The S&P 500 fell on Tuesday as investors rotated out of chip stocks and into cyclical sectors, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will rebound at Wednesday’s open.

The S&P 500 closed down 0.57% at 7,511.35, while the June 17 Polymarket contract implied an 78% probability that the index will open higher on Wednesday.

Why That Number Matters

Investors are closely watching Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Markets broadly expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, but traders will scrutinize the Fed’s economic projections and commentary for clues on the path ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Elon Musk Wants To Make Humanity A 2 Planet Species, But His Odds Of Visiting Mars Aren't All That High If You Believe Prediction Market Bettors

Benzinga Neuro — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 05:28:34 +0000

Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) has completed its initial public offering (IPO) and now all eyes are on the company's next move.

Musk's Mars Ambitions

One of Musk's goals has been to reach Mars, colonize it and build a city on it. This goal was also part of a performance target for the world's richest man, as revealed by SpaceX's IPO paperwork.

Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying

While Musk has made reaching Mars one of his biggest goals, prediction markets are not very confident about the trillionaire being able to achieve it.

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Elon Musk Is Weighing The Sun's Power For AI, While Crypto Bettors Weigh How Many SpaceX Starships Will Succeed In 2026 — Here Are The Odds

Aniket Verma — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 03:24:40 +0000

Elon Musk reiterated on Tuesday the importance of solar energy for the future, while cryptocurrency punters bet on how many Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) Starship launches would successfully land in space.

Polymarket Wagers On Space Exploration

Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket assigned a 40% chance that fewer than five launches will succeed in 2026, down from 56% a week earlier.

There was a 28% chance of 5–6 successful launches, and a 14% chance of 7–8 succeeding.

Over $470,000 has already been wagered on the outcome. The launch counts as successful if Starship lifts off and climbs at least 62 miles above sea level between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31.

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The ‘Mishap’ Of V3

Note that SpaceX ...

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Robinhood's Fastest-Growing Business Has A Regulation Problem: Here's What It Means For HOOD

Daragh Thomas — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 20:16:09 +0000

Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) could nearly quadruple its prediction-market revenue this year, just as federal regulators hand the booming business its first rulebook.

A veteran Wall Street risk manager says that rulebook is backward.

The CFTC’s June 10 proposal sets up a contract-by-contract “public interest” review, its first attempt to define which event contracts can stand.

Chairman Mike Selig calls it clear rules of the road, but the trigger categories, gaming chief among them, cover most of the industry’s volume, including the World Cup betting fueling the boom.

A Wall Street Veteran Calls It Backward

Aaron Brown, a former risk manager and research head at AQR Capital Management, says the framework gets the economics exactly wrong.

The CFTC wants to weigh whether the people trading a contract actually understand the event.

Brown says that misses how markets work.

A price doesn’t average the crowd, it gets set by whoever knows the ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Tesla's Mass-Market Lead Faces A Looming Threat From Rivian's R2, But Prediction Markets Are Still Betting On TSLA

Daragh Thomas — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 19:52:51 +0000

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) began delivering its new R2 this month, the $58,000 SUV built to chase Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) into the mass market, with a cheaper $45,000 version promised for 2027.

The early reviews are strong, but the first lease quotes landed near $829 a month, close to what its far pricier R1S commands.

The R2 has the makings of a real Tesla rival. It travels 330 miles on a charge, reaches 60 miles per hour in about 3.6 seconds, and drew a review from Motor Trend that called it “difficult to fault.”

Still, the traders pricing Tesla’s deliveries do not appear worried.

The Crowd Is Ahead Of Wall Street

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney raised his Q2 delivery estimate to 420,000 vehicles ...

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Washington Pulled The Plug On Anthropic's Best AI: Here's When Prediction Markets Say It Comes Back

Daragh Thomas — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 15:51:17 +0000

Anthropic launched Fable 5, its most powerful model yet, on June 9.

Three days later it was gone, and the tip that killed it reportedly came from its largest backer, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).

In evidence of how powerful the new model is, launch partner Stripe reported that Fable 5 ran a codebase-wide migration across a 50-million-line Ruby codebase in a single day, work it estimated would have taken an engineering team over two months. That is the enterprise firepower now sitting dark.

Why Washington Pulled The Plug

Amazon’s researchers cracked Fable 5, reportedly using a “fix this code” prompt to make it surface information useful for cyberattacks.

Its CEO, Andy Jassy, took the findings to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other officials, and on June 12 Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick ordered Anthropic to pull the model.

Amazon has poured roughly $13 billion into Anthropic and holds a $100 billion ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Spain's Historic World Cup Stumble Made A Stranger $9 Million On Polymarket

Daragh Thomas — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 15:10:21 +0000

An anonymous Polymarket trader known as “fishalive” booked a roughly $9 million profit on about $4.2 million of bets against Spain on Monday, cashing in on one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.

Spain came in as the reigning European champion and a tournament favorite, priced near 92% to beat Cabo Verde on Polymarket and given a 26% chance to lift the trophy by a Goldman Sachs model.

Cabo Verde, an archipelago of about half a million people off the coast of West Africa, had never before qualified for a World Cup and fielded no stars.

The debutants held the champions to a scoreless draw.

How Two Bets Won $9 Million

The winning account made just two wagers, both against Spain. One bet that Spain would not win the match returned about $4.7 million. The other faded Spain on the spread, where the favorite needed to win by three goals or more, and paid roughly ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down Today?

Eva Mathew — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:10:55 +0000

The S&P 500 surged on Monday after President Donald Trump announced a deal to end the war between the U.S. and Iran, but Polymarket traders remain divided on whether the benchmark index can extend its gains at Tuesday’s open.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.65% to close at 7,554.29 on Monday, its strongest daily gain in weeks, as falling oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions boosted risk appetite. The June 16 Polymarket contract implied a 52% probability that the index will open higher on Tuesday, reflecting an almost even split among traders.

Why That Number Matters

Markets rallied after Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran had reached an agreement to end the conflict in the Middle East.

According to ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

When Will Starlink Officially Announce An IPO? Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying

Benzinga Neuro — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 05:23:19 +0000

Elon Musk has become the world's first trillionaire with the successful initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX).

The company's public debut has now raised questions about whether we will see an IPO for Starlink, a subsidiary of SpaceX.

Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying

Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $440,000 has been bet on the contract "When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?"

The prediction market is not very confident about an IPO happening anytime soon. Bettors have placed a 7% probability on a Starlink IPO "Before Apr 1, 2027." The odds ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Benjamin Netanyahu Gets Publicly Insulted By Trump Before Month Ends? Crypto Punters Raise Odds As US-Israel Rift Appears On 'Terrible' Iran Deal

Aniket Verma — Tue, 16 Jun 2026 04:12:47 +0000

The U.S.-Iran agreement has set Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a “collision course” with President Donald Trump, according to a report published on Monday.

A Major Rift Brewing?

An Israeli official told Reuters that the preliminary agreement is “terrible” for Israel and no one in the country’s leadership views it otherwise.

Notably, Trump described Netanyahu as a “very difficult guy” in a New York Times interview on Sunday, adding that the Israeli leader should be “thankful” to the U.S. for preventing a possible nuclear attack from Iran.

But this is not the first time Trump has expressed his displeasure with Netanyahu’s actions. Earlier this month, he reportedly called Netanyahu "crazy" over Israel's attacks in Lebanon in an "expletive-laden call."

Netanyahu also acknowledged differences with Trump at a Monday press conference, saying, “We many times see eye-to-eye, and there ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Mike Novogratz Is Bullish On Bitcoin But Nervous About SpaceX

Daragh Thomas — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 19:52:26 +0000

Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ:GLXY) CEO Mike Novogratz says Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is heading back above $70,000 and that Washington will eventually inflate its way out of debt, but the one trade making him uneasy is the biggest IPO in history.

Speaking on his “All Things Markets” podcast with Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz called SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) the biggest IPO ever by a factor of three, raising roughly $75 billion against the $25 billion Saudi Aramco deal.

Novogratz isn’t alone in flagging the froth. Short seller James Chanos called SpaceX a “hopes and dreams IPO,” noting it came public at roughly 90 times revenue, versus the 10 to 15 times a normal business trades at.

Why The IPO Makes Novogratz Nervous

Novogratz argued the U.S. has no clean exit from its $40 trillion debt other than inflating it away, likely running 3% to 4% inflation for ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

JD Vance Is Trump's 'Iran Deal Architect', But What Do Prediction Markets Say About His 2028 Chances?

Daragh Thomas — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 19:26:34 +0000

Vice President JD Vance worked the morning shows Monday to sell a landmark U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a deal President Donald Trump said Vance could sign for the U.S. on Friday in Switzerland.

The framework, reached Sunday and set for a formal signing on June 19, jolted markets.

Oil fell to its lowest level since March on the prospect of restored Gulf shipping, pressuring oil-linked funds such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO).

Vance pledged that “not a single dollar” of U.S. money will reach Iran unless Tehran abandons its nuclear weapons program, with sanctions relief tied to verified compliance.

Later this week, Vance is promoting Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith, a HarperCollins memoir on his Catholic conversion and spiritual sequel to Hillbilly Elegy, ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

After SpaceX's Nearly $2 Trillion IPO, Is Bezos's Blue Origin Still In The Space Race?

Daragh Thomas — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 16:20:35 +0000

Elon Musk’s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) on Friday pulled off the biggest IPO in history, pricing near $1.78 trillion, then jumping about 19% on debut to close above $2 trillion.

Weeks earlier, rival Blue Origin watched a rocket explode on the pad in a fireball compared to a nuclear blast.

The timing stung, because the Jeff Bezos-backed Blue Origin had been closing the gap between the two space companies.

A week before the blast, Bezos told CNBC the company was finally ready to take on outside investors, a sign it was gaining ground.

How An Explosion Moved The Odds

On May 28, a New Glenn rocket exploded on the pad during a ground test of its engines. The blast destroyed the rocket ...

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Kalshi's Record $18B Month Was Powered By A Secret AI Named 'Harrison' That Runs On Claude

Daragh Thomas — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 15:56:09 +0000

Kalshi once paid a roster of Yale debate champions to bulletproof the wording of its prediction market contracts. Now an AI named Harrison does much of the heavy lifting.

That AI runs on Anthropic’s Claude model, and it helped power the exchange’s biggest month on record. Kalshi cleared nearly $18 billion in notional volume in May, per Dune Analytics data, then broke a weekly record with $5.1 billion in the first week of the 2026 World Cup.

Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said an AI engineer on the markets team uses Harrison to battle-test the entire certification process, hunting for holes before a contract goes live.

Kalshi’s $1 billion Series F in May valued the exchange at $22 billion.

The Two Words That Cost Traders

Contract language has tripped up the industry before. Kalshi once resolved a market on whether a Netflix Inc.

Full story available on Benzinga.com

Trump's 'Complete' US-Iran Peace Deal Nets Prediction Market Trader Over $1 Million In A Day

Daragh Thomas — Mon, 15 Jun 2026 14:57:10 +0000

President Donald Trump‘s declaration that the U.S.-Iran peace deal is “now complete” has minted at least one outsized winner on Polymarket.

A pseudonymous trader known as wan123 booked more than $1 million in profit over a single day, according to public portfolio data, as the platform repriced an agreement toward near-certainty.

wan123 had loaded up on “Yes” shares for a permanent U.S.-Iran deal by June 15, buying in around 16 cents on a contract now near 88 cents, still shy of a full dollar as traders weigh whether Monday’s declaration counts before Friday’s signing.

That position alone was worth over $1.25 million in the portfolio, a gain of more than 460%, on the June 15 market.

A smaller “Yes” bet on a deal by June 30 has more than tripled, and a wager that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by month’s end has padded ...
Full story available on Benzinga.com