Brinker International Is An 'Undervalued Casual Dining Growth Story': Analyst

Brinker International Inc (NYSE:EAT) is likely to generate higher-than-expected same-store sales between fiscal 2026 and 2028, bucking the broader trend of a casual dining slowdown.

Proprietary survey data suggests "improving value [and] quality perceptions among the industry’s challenged younger consumers," according to TD Cowen.

The Brinker International Analyst: Analyst Andrew Charles initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $192 price target.

The Brinker International Thesis: The company is an "undervalued growth story within casual dining," with Chili’s, which contributed 92% of system sales in 2025, likely to outperform consensus estimates for same-store sales through fiscal 2028, Charles said in the initiation note.

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"Our conviction is informed by steady improvement in Chili’s value [and] quality perceptions suggested by our proprietary survey data, especially among younger consumers, with headroom to grow," he wrote.

This is likely to be supported by creative marketing, which is "beginning to integrate data analytics, later innings of menu upgrades, store remodels, & operational improvements," the analyst stated.

He estimates Brinker International's portfolio net restaurant growth at 1% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027, and 1.8% in 2028, versus consensus of 0.7%, 1.2%, and 1.1%, respectively.

EAT Price Action: Shares of Brinker International had risen by 2.35% to $161.52 at the time of publication on Tuesday.