Everyone's Talking Gold Or Bitcoin, But This Regulatory Catalyst Is The Real Game-Changer

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan sees two massive catalysts building the next potential impulse move in crypto: the potential passage of the Clarity Act and the gold run past $5,000.

Gold’s Parabolic Move Signals Trust Crisis

Gold has doubled in just 20 months—a stunning move for an asset used as currency for over 2,000 years.

Hougan explains the surge comes from two forces: years of “money printing” finally catching up with fiat currencies, and governments losing trust in each other.

The trust breakdown started in 2022 when the U.S. seized Russia’s treasury assets after the Ukraine invasion. 

That move sent a clear message to central banks worldwide: if you store wealth in someone else’s system, they can take it.

Central banks responded by doubling their annual gold purchases. They needed assets no one else controls.

That trend is now accelerating.

Last week, German economists called for their government to pull gold stored at the New York Federal Reserve and bring it home, implying falling trust in the U.S. as custodian.

Similarly, a Norwegian government panel warned its massive sovereign wealth fund that foreign assets may face “increased taxation, regulatory intervention and even confiscation” in today’s geopolitical climate.

This is where crypto’s unique value becomes clear, according to Hougan.

Unlike gold stored in vaults controlled by governments, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) doesn’t require trusting any institution.

The same applies to assets like Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL). 

Clarity Act Odds Drop To 50%

The Clarity Act would cement the current pro-crypto regulatory environment into law.

Without it, a future administration could reverse today’s policies.

In early January, Polymarket placed passage odds at 80%.

After Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong called the current version unworkable, odds dropped to roughly 50%.

Market Implications

If the Clarity Act passes, Hougan expects the market to rally sharply.

Investors will assume stablecoin and tokenization growth is guaranteed and build that future into prices today, resulting in a bull market built on strong expectations and guaranteed regulatory clarity.

If Clarity fails, crypto enters a “show me” period with three years to prove it’s indispensable.

Future growth becomes contingent on real-world adoption rather than legislative tailwinds.

Hougan points to Uber and Airbnb as examples of technologies that operated on regulatory edges but became so popular lawmakers had to change rules.

If crypto achieves similar penetration, positive legislation will follow regardless of who’s in charge.

The Clarity Act’s fate will likely be decided by end of Q1.

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