Rick Rieder Emerges As Front-Runner In Fed Chair Race As Prediction Markets React To Trump Signals— And The Gap Is Wide

Prediction markets are signaling a potential break with Federal Reserve tradition as BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) executive Rick Rieder jumps to the front of the race to become President Donald Trump's nominee for Fed chair.

Polymarket Odds Point To New Front-Runner

Bets on prediction site Polymarket now show Rieder as the clear favorite, with implied odds of about 55%.

He is well ahead of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh at roughly 31%, while current Fed Gov. Christopher Waller and ex-Trump adviser Kevin Hassett trail in single digits.

Reider is the chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock. He has been with the company since 2009 and is currently responsible for managing about $2.4 trillion in assets.

Trump is said to have met with him in September 2025 during the administration's efforts to identify a new Federal Reserve chair.

Polymarket data shows total trading volume nearing $250 million, underscoring strong interest and conviction among traders.

Why Rieder's Lack Of Fed Experience Is Seen As An Advantage

Rieder, a senior executive at BlackRock, would be the only finalist without prior Federal Reserve or government experience.

Participants familiar with the process have said that distinction may work in his favor, signaling Trump's openness to bypassing traditional central banking résumés in favor of a Wall Street veteran with deep market experience.

Trump had previously ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and publicly indicated Warsh or Hassett as possible replacements for current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

Powell Probe Raises Stakes For Fed Independence

The race is unfolding as scrutiny of Powell intensifies following a Justice Department probe, a development that has drawn sharp criticism from economists and former officials.

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned that the investigation is "extremely chilling" for central bank independence.

Economist Justin Wolfers said Powell's recent remarks amount to a rare public pushback against political pressure, calling it a fight to defend the Fed's autonomy.

Wolfers cautioned that sustained interference could unsettle markets, destabilize the economy and undermine inflation credibility.

Kalshi Odds Also Put Rick Reider In The Lead

On the other hand, even on Kalshi, Reider is currently leading the race, with a 52% probability of winning.

BlackRock stock scores low on Value in Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings, with a favorable price trend in the short, medium and long terms.

Photo Courtesy: MDart10 on Shutterstock.com

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.