Ethan Harris

The latest consumer price index data from March indicated core CPI inflation is still around 5.6%, well above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. Meanwhile, the March jobs report revealed an unemployment rate of just 3.5%. On Friday, Bank of America economist Ethan Harris discussed...

For more than a year now, investors and economists have been concerned rising interest rates could trigger a U.S. recession. Up to this point, the economy has remained resilient. On Friday, Bank of America economist Ethan Harris said there are a growing number of signs the economy is weakening, but...

The consensus outlook for interest rates has shifted dramatically in the last month thanks in large part to the failures of U.S. banks SVB Financial Group, Signature Bank (NASDAQ: SBNY) and Silvergate Capital Corp (NYSE: SI), as well as the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: CS) by...

The Federal Reserve's upcoming March meeting could be the next major catalyst for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY). Growing investor concerns about instability among U.S. banks have some traders speculating the Fed could pause its rate hikes next week, but Bank of America economist...

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) was trading 1% higher Monday ahead of a critical consumer price index (CPI) inflation reading Tuesday morning. Economists are expecting the U.S. Labor Department to report 6.2% CPI inflation in January, down from 6.5% in December and a 2022 peak...

Robert Half International Inc (NYSE: RHI) shares rallied 4.1% on Friday after the staffing company reported strong fourth-quarter numbers, but its earnings call commentary suggested global labor markets were still very imbalanced. "Global labor markets remain tight and the demand for...

On Thursday, U.S. weekly jobless claims dropped to just 190,000, and that could be bad news for investors hoping for a Fed pivot by the end of the year. Strong Labor Market: Bank of America analyst Ethan Harris said Friday the four-week jobless claims average of around 206,000 indicates an...

According to data issued on Tuesday by Mortgage News Daily, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances fell for a third week in a row, from 6.67% to 6.49%. While this is good news for potential buyers holding off on making a purchase, analysts...

One of the biggest concerns for investors heading into the end of the year is whether the U.S. economy will soon slip into a recession. On Monday, Bank of America economist Ethan Harris said he is "puzzled" by economists that don't anticipate a 2023 recession as their base case at...

Bank of America released its 2023 global economic outlook report on Sunday, and the firm's economists are anticipating recessions in the U.S., Europe and the U.K. in the coming year. The Federal Reserve will likely be unable to bring inflation under control without tipping the U.S. economy into...

A potentially pivotal economic indicator is coming Friday via a monthly jobs report. Here's what you need to know ahead of the number. What To Know: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the September nonfarm payroll data at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday. The data will ...

The U.S. Labor Department released Wednesday its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for August, which indicated the number of American job openings dropped 10% in August to 10.05 million jobs. A sharp drop in job openings may be troubling to American workers, but Bank of...

The U.S. may officially hit the common economic definition of a recession this week when the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports its preliminary estimate of second-quarter U.S. GDP growth on Friday. But while Americans consider the implications of an inflation-fueled recession, Bank of America...

One of the biggest concerns weighing on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) in 2022 is that inflation and rising interest rates will trigger a U.S. economic recession. With the second quarter now complete, it's possible the U.S. is already in a recession if second-quarter GDP growth was...

This week, the International Monetary Fund cut its global GDP growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 in the wake of the economic disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, COVID-19 lockdowns in China are weighing on the Chinese economy, and Bank of America economist Ethan...